Newsletter #7 - CediChronicles
“The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old World is dying and the new World cannot be born; in this interregnum, a great variety of morbid symptoms appear” - Antonio Gramsci
The quote explains what’s happening to the multilateral system better than I ever would. Here are the three articles of the 15th of January to make sense of World politics.
1️⃣ US intervention in Venezuela
The first article is one from the International Crisis Group on Venezuela. I think many have been surprised that the US went after Maduro in such a way.
From the US, we’ve been used to either no intervention or full-on regime change. This, however, is different, which is exactly what the article points out. The US removed Maduro but doesn’t seem preoccupied with changing anything about the regime there (as long as the Venezuelan regime cooperates with US demands, especially regarding oil).
2️⃣ Protests in Iran
The second article is about the protests we’re seeing in Iran. It’s not the first time young people have protested the regime, but this time feels different because the Iranian regime is more constrained in its response due to international pressure.
This doesn’t mean the regime won’t react brutally. They’ve done it before, and the latest reports show they’re doing exactly that. But this time, Iranian leaders seem stuck: React too heavily with brutal repression, and they risk even more international pressure. Don’t react, and the protests will grow.
Heads up: this site only gives you three free articles before asking you to pay. So make sure you click only when you're actually ready to read it.
3️⃣ Late Stage Capitalism in Japan
This article isn’t so much about world politics re-aligning, but it presents a compelling argument: the economic incentives of capitalism play a huge role in explaining traits that seem culturally unique to Japan.
It starts with a shocking example: a pop singer apologizing for having a boyfriend by shaving her head (yes, you read that correctly), then digs into how economic incentives shape the organization of society. It’s a Substack piece, not from a think tank, but I thought it was worth sharing because the idea is genuinely interesting.
💭 My takeaway from those last 15 days:
I’ve been asked several times over the last two weeks if we’re heading toward World War III (and people are genuinely serious about it), so I figured I should address it.
There are really two things packed into that question: first, the feeling that the world is spiralling out of control. And second, whether we’re actually heading toward WWIII.
So let me say this directly: no, we are not heading toward World War III. When you look at what actually led to the World Wars, those conditions just aren’t there. What we’re seeing instead is a more fragmented world. Major powers are carving out their spheres of influence, and smaller countries are getting squeezed in the middle. This is what happens when the international system weakens and we revert back to zones of influence.
So keep in mind that most people screaming about WWIII want either attention or are probably just trying to sell you gold, generators, or a premium subscription to their newsletter.